Roads, Water, Clinics: What South African Voters Decided

The people who queued at voting stations across South Africa yesterday were not only choosing councillors. They were weighing in on a political landscape their parents would barely recognise, one that will decide who fixes their roads, delivers their water and runs their clinics.

For decades, one party dominated their towns and cities. Now residents from Cape Town to Durban face a future in which no single movement may hold the reins, and the local governments they depend on could be shaped by negotiated coalitions rather than outright majorities. The results, still being counted, will show how far that fragmentation has advanced, and what new governing arrangements ordinary communities may have to live under.

Nowhere will the shift feel more personal than in Cape Town. The city has long been the Democratic Alliance’s most important stronghold, and the party won nearly 60 percent of the vote there in 2021, securing an outright governing majority. The question for residents is whether it can stay above the 50 percent threshold. Polling ahead of the election put the DA close to that mark, and its vote share had already dropped by about eight points between 2016 and 2021. A similar decline between 2021 and 2026 would put its majority in the Mother City under threat.

If the DA falls below 50 percent, it will be the first time in 15 years the party has not won a majority there. It could still secure a governing coalition with parties such as the Freedom Front Plus. But for a city that has known stable one-party rule, the change would be a real and psychological blow for the party, and residents would face a new style of governance.

That pattern extends across the country. In 2021, 66 of South Africa’s 213 municipalities returned hung councils in which no party won an outright majority, just over a quarter of the total. Analysis by The Common Sense estimates that about 100 municipalities could be hung after yesterday’s vote. For the communities those councils serve, that would cement a reality many already experience: South Africa is now firmly a coalition country, with one-party dominance the exception rather than the norm, a departure from much of the country’s history. For a deeper rundown of the key dynamics, readers can consult the original analysis at https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/five-things-watch-south-africas-local-elections.

Meanwhile, the national picture points the same way. The African National Congress took 45.6 percent of the overall national vote in the 2021 local elections, down from 53.9 percent in 2016, and its support in national elections subsequently fell to barely 40 percent in 2024. The next major threshold is one-third of the vote. Much recent polling has the ANC at that number, and it is not inconceivable its support could tumble further to the high 20s. That would carry real weight for 2029: if the ANC secured about 30 percent of the national vote yesterday and the DA a few points below that, the DA would be well set to become the biggest party in South Africa in 2029, a prospect that would reshape who governs on behalf of every household in the country.

In KwaZulu-Natal, voters in eThekwini, the metro that includes Durban, one of South Africa’s largest and most economically significant cities, are watching a different contest. The uMkhonto weSizwe Party contested its first local election after its dramatic emergence in the 2024 national vote, when it won 14.6 percent nationally and became the largest party in the province. In 2021 the ANC took 42.0 percent in eThekwini and the DA about 26.6 percent; the MKP did not contest that election. Polling placed the MKP well ahead of its competitors, and the question is whether it can convert that support into a majority of council seats or, failing that, find enough partners to govern. The result will show how far the ANC’s historical dominance of KwaZulu-Natal has been displaced.

Perhaps the most consequential results for daily life will come from Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni. In 2021 the ANC remained the largest party in all three metros, winning 33.6 percent in Johannesburg, 34.6 percent in Tshwane and 38.2 percent in Ekurhuleni, with the DA second in each. Polling showed the DA competing closely with, or leading, the ANC in these metros, and a result putting the DA first in all three would mark a significant shift in Gauteng’s balance of power. But being the largest party does not guarantee control. The more consequential question may be which parties agree to govern together, raising the possibility that the ANC and DA replicate their Government of National Unity at municipal level. The two have governed together nationally since 2024, yet their local relationship has been far more adversarial. If neither can assemble a workable majority with smaller parties, their cooperation will become an important option in the negotiations.

For residents across the country, the true test arrives in the weeks ahead, as parties negotiate to form governments that will determine whether this fragmented politics delivers stable, effective local administration or another five years of coalition instability and municipal decline. Whether the councils that emerge can keep the taps running and the clinics open is the question every community will be watching.