SA TV operators face R6bn revenue squeeze by 2029

South Africa’s traditional television operators face a delivery problem measured in billions. PwC’s latest Africa Entertainment and Media Outlook forecasts their revenue base will shrink by nearly R6 billion over the next five years, even as the infrastructure carrying entertainment into homes, mobile networks and fixed connectivity, keeps expanding at pace.

The report frames an industry growing in overall value while revenue, audiences and advertising spend undergo fundamental redistribution. The country’s entertainment and media market is forecast to expand from R301.8 billion in 2025 to R352.4 billion by 2030, adding R50.6 billion. Yet the headline annual growth rate of 3.2% conceals sharply diverging operational fortunes between traditional and digital businesses.

For established broadcasters, the operational reality is contraction. Traditional television revenue is forecast to fall from R34.7 billion to R28.8 billion by 2030, an annual decline of 3.7%. The mechanics are straightforward: advertising expenditure is migrating towards digital channels that offer more precise targeting, measurable results and direct access to consumers. Internet advertising, by contrast, is expected to surge from R38.7 billion to R55.7 billion, growing 7.6% a year as advertisers follow audiences onto digital platforms. A detailed account of these figures is available at https://www.moneyweb.co.za/marketingweb/sa-tv-faces-r6bn-revenue-decline-as-digital-advertising-surges/.

Streaming platforms are scaling up their delivery too. Revenue from online video services is projected to rise from R6.4 billion to R9.2 billion by the end of the decade. But the report’s most unexpected finding concerns subscribers: streaming subscriptions in South Africa are projected to fall from six million in 2025 to 5.8 million in 2030.

That apparent contradiction, rising revenue on a shrinking subscriber base, points to an increasingly mature and price-sensitive market. Streaming providers will need to extract more value through pricing, advertising and bundled services rather than relying on subscriber growth alone. Advertising-supported streaming is emerging as a key operational opportunity: revenue from advertising-funded video services is forecast to almost triple, from R345 million to R950 million by 2030, annual growth of 22.4%. The suggestion is that cost-conscious consumers will gravitate towards cheaper, ad-supported packages.

Traditional television is not finished, however. Even after the projected decline, the sector is still expected to generate more than three times the revenue of streaming services in 2030.

Underneath all of this sits the connectivity layer that actually delivers the product. Revenue from mobile and fixed connectivity services is expected to climb from R183.6 billion to R215.6 billion, accounting for roughly 60% of the entire entertainment and media market by 2030. Video already represents 79.4% of the country’s total data consumption, underlining how smartphones, streaming platforms and connected televisions have reshaped internet usage. PwC forecasts that 5G penetration will reach 86.8% by 2030, opening further capacity for data-intensive entertainment, gaming and advertising.

Other parts of the delivery chain are holding up. Music, radio and podcasting combined are expected to grow from R8 billion to R10.6 billion, an annual increase of 5.7%, with music streaming the strongest driver, supported by strong demand for homegrown performers. South African artists accounted for 70% of the country’s 10 most-streamed artists in 2025. Radio remains an important revenue contributor, though its growth is expected to be more modest.

Cinemas offer a counterintuitive bright spot, with revenue forecast to rise from R757 million to just over R1 billion, suggesting audiences still value shared viewing experiences despite the proliferation of digital alternatives. Gaming and esports are also expanding, with revenues projected to grow from R10.3 billion to R12.7 billion.

Regionally, South Africa remains Africa’s largest and most developed entertainment and media market, but its growth trails continental peers: Kenya is forecast to grow 5% annually and Nigeria 6.9%, reflecting expanding digital audiences and younger populations.

For South African media operators, the message from the outlook is increasingly clear. The future will depend less on attracting larger audiences alone and more on finding profitable ways to reach and retain consumers across multiple platforms, with execution across those platforms determining who captures the shifting revenue.