Political Risk Premium Rises in South Africa's Top Three Metros Before November Vote

Polling data released in August 2026 puts a price on political risk across South Africa’s three most economically consequential metros, Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini, ahead of November’s local government elections. The survey, conducted by Victory Research in partnership with the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense between July 8 and 31, 2026, sampled 2,214 registered voters using telephonic interviews weighted to match the national registered voter population across key demographics.

The research extends well beyond vote-share projections. It maps public opinion on ANC leadership succession, perceptions of the Phala Phala corruption scandal facing President Cyril Ramaphosa, voter attitudes toward immigration and xenophobia, assessments of the Government of National Unity (GNU) partnership between the ANC and Democratic Alliance (DA), and South African views on American refugee policy for Afrikaners and protections for US corporate investment. For investors and operators exposed to South African municipal contracts, utilities, or consumer markets, the answers to those last questions carry direct commercial weight.

The survey’s macro results track local election performance from 2000 through 2021, then layer in first and second quarter 2026 polling to establish baseline expectations. Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini receive particular attention. These battleground metros have shaped electoral outcomes for more than two decades and will likely determine the overall political composition of local government come November.

Favourability rankings reveal how South Africans rate their political leaders. Respondents scored politicians on a scale from 0 (very unfavourable) to 100 (very favourable), with scores above 64 classified as favourable and below 38 as unfavourable. The data separately assess senior ANC politicians and prominent opposition figures, offering a read on which leaders command voter confidence heading into the cycle.

ANC leadership succession sits as a significant backdrop to the entire contest. National voter preferences and ANC voter preferences are now strongly aligned behind a single candidate, the polling shows, suggesting the party’s internal dynamics could shape both the November results and the political trajectory well beyond them.

Public perception of the Phala Phala scandal adds another variable. For the first time, the survey captures voter views on whether Ramaphosa is guilty of a crime, not guilty, or uncertain but believes he has a case to answer. Separate questions measure support for the ANC removing him from office if found guilty, support for a DA motion of no confidence, and whether South Africa would be better off with his removal. Each scenario carries governance continuity implications that markets and foreign investors will be watching closely.

Immigration sentiment has emerged as a powerful electoral force. The survey tests whether voters agree that foreign immigrants are a primary cause of South Africa’s job shortage and whether they believe communities have the right to identify and remove immigrants if the government fails to act. The extent to which xenophobia drives voting behaviour in November could influence policy responses that affect labour markets and business operating environments in the metros.

The GNU partnership between the ANC and DA receives detailed scrutiny. Voters were asked whether their lives have improved since the coalition formed, whether the GNU is performing well or poorly, how they rate each party’s performance within the coalition, and, critically, whether the country would improve or worsen if the DA were replaced by the Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe Party. That last question is not abstract: a shift in coalition composition at municipal level would directly affect procurement policy, service delivery contracts, and the regulatory climate for private operators.

With many councils expected to lack a majority winner in November, the survey tests support for continued ANC-DA cooperation in municipalities where neither party wins outright. Coalition governance will likely dominate local administration across South Africa, making the stability of those arrangements a key variable for any business dependent on consistent municipal services or licensing.

The polling also captures voter perceptions of what researchers term “enclaves,” the notion that private actors and communities are assuming functions once performed by the state as state capacity recedes. That framing matters economically: it signals a structural shift in who funds and operates essential services, and where private capital may find both opportunity and risk.

Two international dimensions appear in the survey, reflecting broader geopolitical currents. Respondents were asked their views on the US government’s decision to allow Afrikaners to apply for refugee status and whether they themselves would qualify for or accept such status if offered. By contrast, the investment protection questions are more directly market-facing: whether South Africa should protect American national security interests to secure US trade and investment, whether the government should guarantee that American companies will not face expropriation, and whether American firms should be exempted from black economic empowerment (BEE) requirements to encourage investment and job creation. These questions sit at the intersection of foreign capital attraction and domestic economic transformation policy, a tension that has long complicated South Africa’s investment climate.

The survey employed a single-frame random digit dialling design drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers. National results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at 95% confidence, while Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a 4.4% margin of error. The primary turnout model was set at 56%. Full details and additional analysis are available at https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/special-report-election-2026-latest-polling.

Whether the ANC-DA coalition holds in the metros after November, and on what policy terms, may ultimately decide which investors find South Africa’s municipal economy open for business.